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Two operators alone – Kalshi and Polymarket – topped the combined $1 billion mark in NFL trading activity over the first six days of Week 1, according to numerous measures this week. During the period, Kalshi recorded NFL volume of $983.4 million, according to DeFi Rate, earning the pole position by a large margin. Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs thrashed the Denver Broncos 31-10 on Monday Night Football, capping the largest week for prediction markets ever.
Even before the primetime matchup in Kansas City, it became abundantly clear that the industry would shatter previous marks for weekly activity. The AFC West showdown bolstered the already robust totals. Overall, volume for the week hit a record $15.9 billion, according to Bank of America, up 16% from a week earlier.
The pure-play prediction market-operators, Polymarket and Kalshi, emerged from Week 1 as the clear winners. On one hand, Kalshi’s market share lead narrowed over its competitors, falling to 82% for the week ended 13 September, down from 86% a week earlier.
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In May, Selig wrote in a social media post on X that under Trump’s leadership, the nation became the “crypto capital of the world“. Moving forward, the absence of a law makes any rules or advisories issued by the CFTC or the Securities and Exchange Commission vulnerable to being reversed or challenged in court, according to CoinDesk. As of Thursday evening, Selig had not released a statement on the vote.
Prediction markets aside, the absence of crypto on a federal level may have some drag on the regulated industry, especially in the iGaming and sports betting space.
Younger patrons are increasingly familiar with crypto, but the lack of regulatory adoption in the regulated space can push bettors to offshore or unlicensed platforms, most of which do accept it. At the ICE Barcelona conference in 2025, a panel of international sports betting CEOs lamented the fact that they were barred from adopting crypto, while their black-market competitors were not.
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The biggest game for bettors at Caesars Sportsbook was Lions-Bills, while the most favorable for the house was Vikings-Bears—a 9-3 defensive battle won by Minnesota.
“Sunday early games brought a sharp reversal,” Feazel said. “Underdogs and defenses came out swinging, offenses went quiet, and touchdowns were much harder to locate. In Week 1, it felt like everyone with a jersey found the end zone. This Sunday, even the end zone required a reservation.”
Still, some bettors landed massive payouts on Thursday night. A $100 same-game parlay on Lions at Bills returned $50,000, hitting on first-touchdown and anytime-touchdown props for Josh Allen, Amon-Ra St. Brown, James Cook, Jahmyr Gibbs, Dalton Kincaid, and Sam LaPorta.
