Fortune Spin

What is Fortune Spin?

Botswana Congress Party MP Kenny Kapinga also argued that parliament should retain the current minimum age of 21, saying younger adults remained vulnerable to early exposure to gambling.

In January, Acting Gambling Authority CEO Moruntshi Kemorwale said reported problem gambling had declined from 5% in 2020 to 3.4% in 2025. It was a change he attributed in part to the regulator’s National Responsible Gambling Programme and nationwide education and outreach.

He said the Authority’s role was to protect the public while ensuring gambling benefited Botswana. Kemorwale added that it was working with police against illegal promoters who make misleading promises of wealth, and that its approach to licensed operators emphasised guidance and compliance alongside enforcement.

How to play Fortune Spin

Compared to the 2021 licensing round, the KSA adopted a more granular and stringent approach to its licence renewal process. This was expected following new policy rules set out by the regulator in September 2025.

One such rule was for licensees that had faced compliance enforcement during the five years operating in the Netherlands.

At the time KSA announced: “Providers that made mistakes in the past five years must explain during the application process how they have learned from previous mistakes and how they intend to prevent recurrence. If we find this explanation insufficient, the permit may be denied or additional conditions and restrictions may be imposed.” 

What is Fortune Spin?

While sports event contracts remain the headline-grabbers for prediction market operators, there’s evidence that other categories are experiencing growth. As Bernstein points out, cryptocurrency event contracts account for at least 20% of the turnover on the two largest prediction markets.

In another encouraging non-sports sign, one of those operators notched just $2 million in commodities volume last year, but that figure surpassed $410 million in August alone and is approaching $600 million on a year-to-date basis.

Bernstein estimates the global market for financial contracts will grow to $900 trillion by 2035, up from $700 trillion last year, and if prediction markets capture just 0.5% of that total, volume would increase by $4.7 trillion per year.