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If the research firm’s $190 billion taker volume estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than eightfold increase from the $22 billion taker turnover seen last year.
Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.
As Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon points out, prediction markets generated $4.3 billion in taker volume during the first week of September without any help from the NFL, building on momentum from the 2026 World Cup. However, the NFL’s impact was immediate, with taker volume hitting a daily record during Week 1 of the campaign.
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“So you get the same stable and predictable growth and you get the capital returns. You get no additional risk, and you get the benefits of the new markets and the online opportunities on top of the synergies, which are also pretty significant. So that’s why this makes a lot of sense to us.”
Cirsa CEO Antonio Hostench echoed Angelozzi’s confidence, adding: “On our side, we see this as a great opportunity because as Guglielmo said, there is no overlap between the companies, almost no overlap.
“So we just see creating one of the biggest groups in the world in gaming terms. And we’ll be sharing the long-term plan that Lottomatica has, which is very attractive. So I mean, the risk is minor, and we feel very well protected and joining this long-term plan will be a plus to our people.”
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Instead, the phrase embodies the ethos of the Lone Star State, where Texans demonstrate a sense of pride and identity that exemplifies the state’s outsized persona. As event contracts proliferate, the adage could be applied to prediction markets, where volume ranks among the highest in the nation. Last Sunday, for instance, trading activity for an NFL matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and the New York Giants topped $208 million across US markets, figures from Aldrin Research show. At Kalshi, volume for the NFC East showdown on Sunday Night Football eclipsed that of any NFL regular-season game last year.
The volume is not only seen across NFL markets, but also on those in college football, which is practically a religion in Texas. When Ohio State faced Texas in a Top 5 matchup on 12 September, volume surpassed 50.7 million contracts traded, according to Odds Shopper, a prediction market tracking site. The robust activity set the stage for an intense legislative hearing three days later in the Texas Senate.
The 62-minute hearing featuring Kalshi and a prominent lobbyist from the American Gaming Association provided a blueprint for the state’s evaluation of prediction markets next year. Before the calendar turns to 2027, though, stakeholders will monitor races for governor, attorney general and the US Senate on election night. The results in all three Texas races will likely have a major impact on the future of prediction markets inside the state.
